London Playbook PM: The one-man rebellion

Good afternoon. This is Andrew McDonald from committee corridor, where Mel Stride has just been knocked out of the Tory leadership race. More on that further down the email.
— Just a single Labour MP voted against the government’s plan to limit winter fuel payments.
— Keir Starmer warned unions of an economic storm as he addressed the TUC. Not all union bods are on board.
— Mel Stride was knocked out of the Tory leadership race.
— Antony Blinken and David Lammy gushed over the special relationship at a press conference — and now plan to head to Kyiv.
— A big announcement is coming tomorrow on the future of the Port Talbot steelworks, POLITICO can reveal.
** A message from SSE: Want to build a Britain where cleaner, homegrown energy drives economic growth, supports homes and businesses across the country and leads the world in tackling climate change? SSE has a plan to help the Government deliver its Clean Power Mission and secure our energy future. Find out more.**
ARMY OF ONE: Just a single Labour MP voted against the government’s cuts to winter fuel payments — as Labour MPs opted for unity or fence-sitting over a show of opposition to the big decision dominating their constituency inboxes.
Jon on his own: Jon Trickett — an old ally of Jeremy Corbyn once said to have enjoyed bouncing policy ideas off an imaginary monkey during meetings — was the only MP to vote with a Conservative motion this afternoon to strike down the plan to means test winter fuel payments. The MP said that he “could not in good conscience vote to make my constituents poorer”, and that he will sleep well tonight.
No word yet … on whether he will lose the whip, like the leftie seven who had it suspended for six months over their votes to scrap the two-child benefit cap. Five of the seven suspended Labour MPs voted with Trickett, while Rebecca Long-Bailey and Imran Hussain abstained. 
Sound of silence: MPs have been advised by the whips not to post about the vote on their social media, my colleague Esther Webber hears. Plenty aren’t following that advice. 
The fence sitters: Another 53 Labour MPs didn’t vote with the government — opting instead to abstain, though do remember the usual caveats about abstentions. Playbook PM understands that only a dozen of those 53 are being considered unauthorized absences by the Labour whips.
Nevertheless: It’s clear the policy is still exercising the feelings of Labour MPs — even if they can’t all bring themselves to vote for a Conservative motion.. A small person’s handful of Labour MPs raised their concerns in the debate beforehand too.
Cast of three: The incoming new chair of the work and pensions committee Debbie Abrahams criticized the cut, imploring the government and fellow MPs to “protect our most vulnerable citizens”. She voted for it anyway … Rachael Maskell (abstained), sitting alongside fellow critic Rosie Duffield, said the government should shelve the cut until it has a better solution … and Neil Duncan-Jordan (abstained), who tabled the early day motion on the cut, said the same and called for a new task force on pensioner poverty.
And: LBC’s Lewis Goodall hears several Labour MPs were in tears in the voting lobbies as they voted for the changes.
You can see why they’re worried: Keir Starmer’s approval rating among OAPs has plummeted, HuffPost’s Kevin Schofield reveals … while Money Saving Expert Martin Lewis told Times Radio the system replacing universal payments is “not fair” and “needs tweaking”. Lewis also said that Labour MPs have been telling him to try and change Rachel Reeves’ mind. Good luck with that.
Long day in politics: Shadow Work and Pensions Secretary Mel Stride got a bit of time in the limelight (before he was knocked out of the leadership race) as he opened the debate for the opposition — entertaining more than just his supporters on the Tory benches with an energetic speech about Labour breaking its promises. He told Labour MPs to “look to [their] conscience.”
Stride also fairly pointed out … that the only report into this proposal has come from a Lords committee on secondary legislation, which says it is concerned about the practicalities of bringing in the change at short notice. The government is also yet to publish an impact assessment, despite Energy Minister Miatta Fahnbulleh confirming one has been carried out. 
Trying to knock him off of his Stride: Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall — closing the debate due to weird procedural reasons slammed by that Lords committee and explained by Esther here — went for the usual big hits, attacking the “faux outrage” of Tory MPs and the inheritance left by the last government. How many more times are we going to have to hear that?
As for how the public feel: They’re divided, innit. 46 percent support means testing, and 44 percent don’t, according to YouGov snap polling.
STARM UND DRANG: Starmer earlier warned unions of an economic “storm” as he pushed pay expectations to the floor (as previewed in this morning’s Playbook). He blamed the Tories (natch) for not sounding more ambitious in the election, Dan Bloom writes in from the PM’s speech at the TUC in Brighton. “We didn’t want to go further because we knew there would be new problems, unknown problems when we finally saw the books … If we don’t take action, it’s a check that will bounce,” Starmer said.
Taking the hint: But after union complaints that he’s offering no hope, Starmer — giving the first TUC speech by a Labour PM for 15 years — did squeeze in this: “The light of a fairer Britain, a more prosperous, secure and dynamic country, is at the end of the tunnel.” The big cheer was when he recommitted to repeal the Tories’ 2016 union crackdown. LabourList have a full transcript.
Not all convinced: The PM got two loud single heckles which sounded like “tax the rich” and “what about pensioners?” The GMB said recent pay deals “must be a start and not a finish” … Unite’s Sharon Graham said “tinkering around the edges is not enough, Labour must rule out austerity mark two” … and civil service union Prospect’s chief Mike Clancy told Dan: “I think that there will be a degree of patience, but it won’t last for long.”
But here’s two fans! UNISON chief Christina McAnea called it a “serious speech from a serious prime minister” … and *checks notes* RMT General Secretary Mick Lynch told hacks: “It’s not Santa Claus, is it? His job isn’t to come down here and throw sweets at people. His job is to be a realistic politician. I respect that.”
But but but … Lynch added the winter fuel cut is a “mis-step,” Starmer “will be accountable” if pensioners die and it’ll be “a bit of a dictatorship” if rebels — or should that be rebel — lose the whip. So there’s that. 
Row avoided! A TUC vote on opposing the winter fuel cut has been delayed until Wednesday — when many hacks and delegates will have, er, gone home. One person tells Dan Labour leaned on union officials to delay it; another person insists it was just due to Starmer doing a Q&A. Said session saw the PM take six pre-selected questions from delegates, none of which were about winter fuel despite widespread concern even in Starmer-friendly unions. But one Q on the two-child benefit limit got a big cheer.
Row to come: There’s still major speculation in union land that there will be some help for pensioners before the Budget, despite noises otherwise from the Treasury. “It’ll run all through conference,” warns one official. The PM’s spokesperson again insisted there are “no plans” for extra measures incoming at the morning lobby briefing.
It’s the way she tells ‘em! Angela Rayner was the star speaker at the TUC’s chummy, no-hacks-allowed general council dinner in Brighton’s Grand Hotel last night. The Deputy PM, who sat at the top table with guests including her sometime partner Sam Tarry, told union bigwigs: “Apparently it’s a sell out … Or at least that’s what Sharon [Graham] shouted at me on the way in!”
STRIDING INTO THE SUNSET: Mel Stride has been knocked out of the Tory leadership contest, finishing dead last (and fifth overall) after the latest ballot of MPs. 1922 Chairman Bob Blackman just announced the results to an audience of hacks — who turned out in decent numbers — in one of parliament’s committee rooms right before Playbook PM hit your inbox. 
The results in full: Robert Jenrick (33, up 5 on last week) … Kemi Badenoch (28, up 6) … James Cleverly (21, no change) … Tom Tugendhat (21, up 4) … Mel Stride (16, no change).
It’s a good result for … frontrunners Jenrick and Badenoch, who won the bulk of the 14 MPs who backed Priti Patel last week. Badenoch’s camp in particular will be delighted to have defied speculation that their candidate may struggle to stay ahead of Cleverly. Tugendhat will also be pleased to stay in the race and to have won some of those votes from Patel. 
It’s less good for … Cleverly, who made no progress and faces a battle to stay in the race after party conference. Better make it a good speech.
Next steps: The four horsemen now ride off to Tory conference, where they’re currently set for 20 minute — rather than the initially proposed 10 — slots to make their case on the main stage, Playbook PM hears. There will then be more votes among MPs to whittle the field on October 9 and then October 10.
IN OTHER TORY RELATED NEWS: The Spectator has now officially been sold, to the Old Queen Street Media group owned by hedge fund boss and Brexit campaign funder Paul Marshall. He also owns UnHerd and is in the running to buy the Telegraph — and is a big investor in GB News.
The next question … is what Marshall does with the magazine, which has loads of influence within the Conservative Party but also publishes a pretty wide array of commentators largely drawn from the right — rather than taking any explicit line. As an example, it hasn’t backed a horse in the Tory leadership race. Questions also loom over the future of the magazine’s current management and whether editor Fraser Nelson continues in his job, with Chairman Andrew Neil already out (with a punchy statement attacking the sale here). Spectator staff have no idea how this will play out yet.
From Nelson: The Spectator editor penned this screed acknowledging the sale and a new era for the magazine — and praising the previous leadership.
And from Team Marshall: Freddie Sayers, who runs the Marshall entity acquiring the title, told the FT that he will treat the magazine with “appropriate respect.” He said it would remain separate from UnHerd with independent editorial structures, and that he hopes it will “compete with POLITICO” (who dat?) as a source of information about British politics.
BLINKEN AND YOU’LL MISS IT: U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s flying visit to the U.K. gave Foreign Secretary David Lammy yet another chance talk up the relationship between the two countries as the U.K.-U.S. Strategic Dialogue officially opened. He also made news — Blinken confirmed that Iran has supplied ballistic missiles to Russia.
Oooh, friend: At a morning roundtable which also featured ambassadors Jane Hartley and Karen Pierce, Blinken was keen to praise Lammy’s hard work for “going all out from day one” on the whole special relationship thing since entering office. “I can’t think of two governments, two countries, where we have more daily, sometimes hourly, communication on everything that matters,” he said.
Down to business: At a press conference soon afterwards, Blinken said Iran had supplied ballistics to Russia, and that the U.S. expects them to be used in Ukraine. Right on cue, allies including the U.K. slapped fresh sanctions on Tehran.
Coming to Kyiv: Lammy and Blinken confirmed they’ll make their first joint visit to Ukraine later this week. The pair would not publicly commit to supplying Ukraine with long range capability in its pushback against Russia’s invasion — but suggested they’re open to further discussions as they meet the Ukrainian leadership.
One more bilat: Starmer will be meeting Blinken too, for a bilat at Lancaster House as Playbook PM hits your inboxes.
On the ground: A woman was killed in a Ukrainian drone attack 20 miles outside Moscow in the first deadly strike so close to the Russian capital since the war started. Two people were taken to hospital with serious injuries. The Times has more.
PRISON BREAK: More than 1,700 prisoners were released ahead of time today as the government’s early release scheme — forced by prison overcrowding — began. There have been some chaotic scenes.
Vote’s a vote: “I’m a lifelong Labour voter now!” a drug dealer, 20, told the Mail as he was released from HMP Isis in London. Crowds greeted some of the released with champagne and cheering. There are tons of write-ups furnished with other delighted quotes from those who are out early — including in the Times, GB News and even the BBC.
Also making headlines: Prisoners might be temporarily put up in hotels at the taxpayers’ expense if they are homeless on release, Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood confirmed in the Commons earlier.
But of course: The government argues that this is another consequence of the inheritance it was left by the Conservatives. “This was not a step we wanted to take,” the PM’s official spokesperson said earlier. “We had to act to ensure the criminal justice system didn’t collapse.”
To be clear: No one convicted of either violent crimes with a sentence of more than four years, sexual offenses or offenses linked to domestic violence are being released under the scheme.
Problem: Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds gave an assurance this morning victims are being informed of any prisoners being released “where it’s relevant to them,” after Victims Commissioner Helen Newlove said she was concerned that this wasn’t always happening. “While I recognise the challenges in reaching certain groups of victims, this is regrettable and must be addressed,” she said in a statement. The BBC has a write-up.
STEEL YOURSELVES: A big announcement on the future of the Port Talbot steelworks is coming Wednesday, two people confirm to POLITICO’s Dan Bloom and Russell Hargrave. It is set to mean closing the blast furnaces and handing Tata Steel £500 million to invest in an electric arc furnace — like under the last government — but with better redundancy terms on pay and job security. Ministers will point to it as a victory but the wave of job losses, including at other sites (via the BBC), “are branded a “disaster” by one union official. Jonathan Reynolds plans to give a post-PMQs statement, as Sky’s Mark Kleinman first heard.
STATS DROP: The ONS stat drop today shows that average wages across the U.K grew at the slowest rate in over two and a half years in July, continuing a slow down in wage growth. Which means the state pension will, as expected, rise by well above the rate of inflation next year, by £460 a year from April.
Other stat news: The number of people in work actually rose by 265,000 in the three months through July, the biggest gain (over the same period) in over two years — though, as Resolution Foundation bod-turned Labour MP Torsten Bell points out … U.K. employment data is a bit of a mess.
NEWBIE FIGHT BACK: Labour MP Marie Tidball defended running for education committee chair despite only being elected to represent Penistone and Stocksbridge in July — amid pushback from more experienced Labour MPs about newbies going for the plum roles. The Guardian has more.
NORMAL PARLIAMENT: The Conservatives have put forward Christopher Chope of upskirt-bill-blocking fame for … the modernization select committee. The Guardian’s Eleni Courea got the story.
IN BELFAST: Jeffrey Donaldson, who resigned as Democratic Unionist Party leader in March after being charged with sexual offenses, has pleaded not guilty today to all 18 counts against him. They include one count of rape, four counts of gross indecency and 13 counts of indecent assault dating from 1985 to 2008. 
Trial date: Donaldson, 61, didn’t speak as he ran a media gantlet outside Newry Crown Court. But from the courtroom dock, Donaldson leaned into the microphone and declared “not guilty” as each charge was read out. The judge set his trial to start on March 24, 2025, nearly a year after his arrest at his County Down home.
ALL EYES ON PHILLY: The second and possibly final U.S. presidential debate kicks off tonight between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump in Philadelphia, the largest city in the crucial swing state of Pennsylvania. Broadcast on ABC News from 2 a.m. U.K. time, it’s the perfect chance for Westminster watchers to channel their inner U.S. politics nerd.
The rundown: Exactly eight weeks before election day, the 90-minute debate will see both candidates have muted mics when the other is speaking, preventing interruptions. Pre-written notes are also prohibited with no live studio audience. My Stateside colleagues report Trump’s advisers are encouraging him to focus on Harris’ record rather than launch personal attacks to improve the Republican’s performance with female voters. Harris will also try to focus on policy and deflect any personal attacks.
Don’t forget: The presidential debate between Trump and Joe Biden in June arguably changed the course of history as the incumbent president’s shocking performance forced him to stand down from seeking re-election. Wednesday morning’s London Playbook will have all the top analysis about what the debate means for the state of the race from 7 a.m.
MIDDLE EAST LATEST: Israel’s military said it was “highly likely” its forces unintentionally shot dead Aysenur Ezgi Eygi, a 26-year-old U.S.-Turkish woman at a protest in the occupied West Bank last week, adding the fire was “not aimed at her, but aimed at the key instigator of the riot.” The BBC has a writeup.
IN AUSTRALIA: The Aussie government plans to introduce a minimum age limit on the use of social media this year amid concerns about the dangers of excessive screen use by children, setting a limit between 13 and 16. More from the FT.
**A message from SSE: The race is on for green growth, net zero and energy security. With the clock ticking on the Government’s Clean Power Mission, now is the time to turbocharge investment in homegrown energy, accelerate renewables and rewire Britain. At SSE, we’re already investing over £20bn in mission-critical energy infrastructure. We’re building the world’s largest offshore wind farm. We’re transforming our networks to connect homes and businesses to a greener grid. We’re pioneering low-carbon technologies, such as hydrogen and carbon capture, to reduce emissions from the flexible power needed to back up the system when the wind isn’t blowing and the sun isn’t shining. But, we want to invest a whole lot more. Billions more. Because actions, not ambitions, will secure our energy future and help Britain become a clean energy superpower. SSE. We power change. Find out more.**
LEADING THE NEWS BULLETINS: Channel 5 News (5 p.m.) leads on the government’s prisoner early release scheme coming into effect … Channel 4 News (7 p.m.) focuses on winter fuel payments and includes an interview with Chief Secretary to the Treasury Darren Jones .
Tom Swarbrick at Drive (LBC, until 6 p.m.): PCS union General Secretary Fran Heathcote (5.05 p.m.).
Drive with John Pienaar (Times Radio, until 7 p.m.): Darren Jones … Shadow Scotland Secretary John Lamont … Shadow Education Minister James Wild … money saving expert Martin Lewis … the New Statesman’s Rachel Cunliffe and the Express’ Sam Lister (both 6 p.m.).
BBC PM (Radio 4, 5 p.m.): Darren Jones … Keir Starmer’s biographer Tom Baldwin.
News Hour (Sky News, 5 p.m.): Republican pollster Patrick Ruffini (6.30 p.m.).
Tonight With Andrew Marr (LBC, 6 p.m.): Darren Jones … HM Chief Inspector of Prisons Charlie Taylor … former Met Police Assistant Commissioner for Specialist Operations Neil Basu.
Dewbs and Co (GB News, 6 p.m.): Former Labour MP Steve McCabe … Popular Conservatism Director Mark Littlewood.
Farage (GB News, 7 p.m.): Former Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng … former Lib Dem adviser Jo Phillips.
Politics Hub with Sophy Ridge (Sky News, 7 p.m.): Darren Jones … former Tory MP Jonathan Gullis.
Cross Question with Simon Marks (LBC, 8 p.m.): Former Justice Secretary Robert Buckland … former SNP MP John Nicholson … social activist Nimco Ali … author David Aaronovitch.
TWEETING TOMORROW’S PAPERS TONIGHT: George Mann.
REVIEWING THE PAPERS TONIGHT: Times Radio (10.30 p.m.): ConHome’s Henry Hill and former Labour adviser Stella Tsantekidou … Sky News (10.30 p.m. and 11.30 p.m.): The Observer’s Sonia Sodha and Total Politics Group’s Mark Wallace.
DOWNING ‘EM WITH DAVID: Foreign Secretary David Lammy hosts a big bash at Lancaster House (invites needed).
MANY HAPPY RETURNS: The Centre for Social Justice think tank holds its 20th anniversary party from 6.30 p.m. Invites needed.
PINTS PINTS PINTS: The Long Live the Local pub campaign has its summer party from 5.30 p.m. Invites needed.
COMMONS: PMQs, and a debate on building safety resilience.
COMMITTEES: Select committee chairs to be elected.
STATS: GDP data published 7 a.m.
PACKED LUNCH OR PALACE LUNCH: Subject to change, here are the lunch menus on the estate tomorrow: Bellamy’s: Seared sea bass on tomato buckwheat salad; sweet and sour pork neck steak with stir fried vegetables and egg noodles; pulled jackfruit and vegetable chilli with coconut yoghurt … Terrace Cafeteria: Steamed chicken breast a la King with basmati rice; Forfar bridie (they’re immense); Quorn and aubergine stew with mascarpone sauce and oregano quinoa … River Restaurant: Tuna steak with arrabbiata pasta and chef salad; Cajun halloumi burger with skinny fries and slaw; roast beef with trimmings.
SPOTTED: Scottish Tory MP John Cooper introducing himself to SNP Westminster boss Stephen Flynn in the Commons chamber — after Flynn told the BBC’s Good Morning Scotland program he’d never heard of him. The pair laughed it off.
CONGRATS TO: JL Partners’ Callum Hunter and Hanbury’s Hannah Dawson, who are engaged. Tweet here.
SNAP THEATER REVIEW: The Last Word — seen by Playbook PM at its press night at Marylebone Theatre Monday — is based on the final statements of women accused and convicted of political crimes in Russian courts. They’re all played by Alisa Khazanova and told in the form of spoken word, poetry and music. Director Maxim Didenko uses striking visuals and unsettling imagery to really effectively tell multiple, powerful stories about life in an oppressive society in a fast-paced hour of theater.
ON THIS DAY IN POLITICS: American Express opened a credit card service in Britain for the first time, on this day in 1963.
CLARIFICATION: This morning’s edition of Playbook should have made clear that violent offenders will only be eligible for the early release scheme if they were sentenced to less than four years in prison.
WRITING PLAYBOOK TOMORROW MORNING: Stefan Boscia.
THANKS TO: My editor Matt Honeycombe-Foster, reporter Noah Keate and the POLITICO production team for making it look nice.
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